[1] SHI Suisui CHAO Guojun QI Baoyu YU Xinning YAN XiaolingZHOU Jian,.Analysis of Prognostic Factors and Construction and Validation of Prognostic Models in 814 Children with Chalazion [J]. Modern Traditional Chinese Medicine, 2023, (05): 97-104. [doi: 10.13424/j.cnki.mtcm.2023.05.019]
Analysis of Prognostic Factors and Construction and Validation
of Prognostic Models in 814 Children with Chalazion
- Article number:
- 1672-0571(2023)05-0097-08
- Keywords:
- Key words:Children with chalazion; Risk factors; Prognostic model; Construction; Validation
- ZTFLH:
- R276.7
- Code:
- A
- Abstract:
- Abstract：Objective To explore the risk factors affecting the prognosis of children with chalazion，establish a clinical prognosis prediction model for chalazion，and provide clinical reference for preventing disease progression.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 814 children aged 1 month to 5 years with chalazion who visited the Oriental Hospital of Beijing University of Chinese Medicine and the Ophthalmology Hospital of China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences from June 2018 to June 2021.Collect information on the age，gender，past history，lifestyle，dietary habits，and treatment methods of the child.Based on the clinical outcomes within one year after the end of the visit，814 children with chalazion were divided into a non developing group (518 cases，63.63%) and a developing group (296 cases，36.36%).The differences in general information，treatment methods，lifestyle，and dietary habits between the two groups were compared.814 data samples were collected and divided into a training set of 570 cases and a testing set of 244 cases in a ratio of 7:3.The independent variables were observed based on the basic information，dietary habits，and treatment methods of the patients，and the clinical outcomes within 1 year after the end of the visit were used as the dependent variable.LASSO regression analysis was performed on the training set data to screen for risk factors affecting disease prognosis and a visualized clinical prognosis prediction model column chart was established，Use the data from the training and testing sets for ROC curve analysis to evaluate the value of the model.Results The results of LASSO regression analysis showed that 14 survey factors，including eye rubbing，treatment methods，chalazion site，longterm eye use，partial appetite，constipation，irritability，crying，and allergic constitution，were risk factors affecting the development of the disease.The AUC value of the ROC curve in the training set was 0.883 (95%CI:0.867~0.919)，while the AUC value of the ROC curve in the test set was 0.840 (95%CI:0.817~0.910)，indicating good predictive ability of the model.Conclusion The main risk factors for the development of chalazion in children are eye rubbing，treatment methods，the location of chalazion，longterm eye use，partial appetite，constipation，and irritability.A prognosis prediction model based on the above independent variables can help to determine the prognosis of chalazion in children.Abstract：Objective To explore the risk factors affecting the prognosis of children with chalazion，establish a clinical prognosis prediction model for chalazion，and provide clinical reference for preventing disease progression.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 814 children aged 1 month to 5 years with chalazion who visited the Oriental Hospital of Beijing University of Chinese Medicine and the Ophthalmology Hospital of China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences from June 2018 to June 2021.Collect information on the age，gender，past history，lifestyle，dietary habits，and treatment methods of the child.Based on the clinical outcomes within one year after the end of the visit，814 children with chalazion were divided into a non developing group (518 cases，63.63%) and a developing group (296 cases，36.36%).The differences in general information，treatment methods，lifestyle，and dietary habits between the two groups were compared.814 data samples were collected and divided into a training set of 570 cases and a testing set of 244 cases in a ratio of 7:3.The independent variables were observed based on the basic information，dietary habits，and treatment methods of the patients，and the clinical outcomes within 1 year after the end of the visit were used as the dependent variable.LASSO regression analysis was performed on the training set data to screen for risk factors affecting disease prognosis and a visualized clinical prognosis prediction model column chart was established，Use the data from the training and testing sets for ROC curve analysis to evaluate the value of the model.Results The results of LASSO regression analysis showed that 14 survey factors，including eye rubbing，treatment methods，chalazion site，longterm eye use，partial appetite，constipation，irritability，crying，and allergic constitution，were risk factors affecting the development of the disease.The AUC value of the ROC curve in the training set was 0.883 (95%CI:0.867~0.919)，while the AUC value of the ROC curve in the test set was 0.840 (95%CI:0.817~0.910)，indicating good predictive ability of the model.Conclusion The main risk factors for the development of chalazion in children are eye rubbing，treatment methods，the location of chalazion，longterm eye use，partial appetite，constipation，and irritability.A prognosis prediction model based on the above independent variables can help to determine the prognosis of chalazion in children.
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Memo
基金项目：首都临床特色应用研究与成果推广（Z171100001017206）；中国中医科学院科技创新工程（CI2021A02611）